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    Class and Course
    1. NExT
    2. Business Management
    3. Risk, Uncertainty and Decisions in E&P Projects RILS

    Risk, Uncertainty and Decisions in E&P Projects RILS

    • Foundation
    • 5 Days
    • Remote Instructor Led SeriesRemote Instructor Led Series
      • Average client rating (based on 5 attendee reviews)

    Risks and uncertainties are everywhere in E&P projects. They impact decision making by the projects chosen, how they are developed, and their economic performance. Improving the quality of decisions is the main goal, not just understanding risk and uncertainty for their own sake.

    Although probabilistic concepts and tools are commonly used to describe projects under risk and uncertainty, the principles underlying these concepts and tools are not always well understood.  Upon completion of this course, participants will become more comfortable with probabilistic thinking and how it can be used to improve decision making.


    Day 1 - Risk

    • Basic probability refresher

    • Probability calculation rules 

    • Expected value, risk dependence

    • Simple exploration economics exercise


    Day 2 - Decision Analysis

    • Decision trees

    • Influence diagrams, SWOT analysis

    • Bayes formula 

    • Value of Information and case study

    The case study will illustrate the concept of value of information by combining decision trees and Bayesian inversion to show how the probability of geologic success should be revised to incorporate new seismic information and how the quality of this information impacts its value.  


    Day 3 - Psychological Aspects of Decision Making

    • Utility curves and risk attitudes 

    • Behavioral economics

    • How good are we at estimating?

    • Cognitive biases


    Day 4 - Uncertainty

    • Deterministic versus probabilistic: what is the difference?

    • Histogram, pdf, cdf, percentiles, mean, mode, median, variance, standard deviation

    • Risked mean

    • Standard error of the mean, confidence intervals

    • Random errors and bias

    • Correlation and its interpretation

    • The flaw of averages, the winner’s curse


    Day 5 - Monte Carlo Simulation and case studies

    • A review of the most common distributions used in geosciences

    • The Monte Carlo approach

    • Presentation of @RISK™, a Monte Carlo add-in for Excel™

    • Computing uncertainty on STOIIP

    • What to expect from a workover program?

    Estimation of the production increase expected from a workover program will demonstrate the importance of scale in assessing uncertainty. 


    Anyone interested in learning more about the approach and techniques of risk, uncertainty and decisions in E&P projects.


    Some basic statistics knowledge would be useful but not mandatory. 


    Currently there are no scheduled classes for this course.

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